Broad Support for Ceasefire in Ethiopia, But Questions Over Whether it Will Hold
Tracking Global Events | 15 November 2022
On November 3rd, the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) agreed to a ceasefire, signaling the end of a 2 year long conflict that has left as many as half a million people dead, and at least 2 million people displaced or in need of humanitarian assistance. To better understand views of the Ethiopian population on the ceasefire and outlook on the war, Premise launched a survey to respondents in all regions of Ethiopia except the Tigray region, where the internet has been shut down for many months, making access to the population difficult.
Insights
- A vast majority of respondents are in support of the ceasefire, with 68% saying that they strongly support and 19% saying they somewhat support.
- Overall, most respondents (60%) believe that both sides in this
conflict will abide by the terms of the ceasefire. 18% do not think so, and 22% of respondents are unsure of what to think or preferred to not respond. - Of the 18% that doubt the ceasefire will be abided by, 71% believe it will be broken by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front(TPLF).
- Nearly half (46%) of respondents said that they believe the ceasefire truly signals the end of conflict in the Tigray region. But a further 31% said they think there will still be some fighting between both parties, while 22% are unsure what will come next.
What is your opinion of the ceasefire?
Do you think this ceasefire truly signals the end of conflict in the Tigray region?
Methodology
Premise launched this survey utilizing a convenience sampling, a type of
on probability sampling that is hyper efficient in dynamic events, involving the sample being drawn from the population that is ready to assist. Between November 7th and 14th, the survey garnered 438 responses from 8 regions.
Premise in Action
Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making. To learn more about Premise, watch our tech demo or get in touch with us.