Paraguayans Narrowly Support Ditching Taiwan to Establish Ties with Beijing in Lead up to Crucial Election
Tracking Global Events | 21 April 2023
Paraguay is the last remaining South American country with official diplomatic relations with Taipei. However, Taiwan’s relations with the country may be jeopardized by the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th. The leading candidate of the ruling Colorado Party has pledged to keep Paraguay’s longtime ties with Taiwan intact while the leading opposition candidate, Efrain Alegre, has announced that he would cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and witch to China. To better understand Paraguayans’ perception of Taiwan, China, and the election environment, Premise launched a sentiment survey across the country.
Insights
- The Paraguayan information space over Taiwan has been heating up in the past year. 52% of Paraguayans agree that they have heard more news about the country’s relations with Taiwan in the past year. Moreover, 57% of Paraguayans know that presidential candidate Efrain Alegre intends to switch relations from Taiwan to China.
- Concerning Taiwan’s independence, a majority (56%) of Paraguayans views Taiwan as an independent country, with 36% unsure and only 8% not. Further, 56% of Paraguayans believe the most important reason to have relations with Taiwan is to continue to support a country with Democratic values.
- Despite a majority recognizing Taiwan’s independence, a slim majority (55%) support Paraguay switching recognition from Taiwan to China.
- Paraguayans believe the primary advantages of switching relations to China are expanded trade (45%) and infrastructure investments (37%).
- Even though less than 6% of respondents are unhappy with Taiwan as an economic partner, China provides a much larger market for Paraguay than Taiwan can.
- 21.5% of respondents strongly agree and 39.8% somewhat agree that “establishing diplomatic relations with China is important for Paraguay’s economy”.
- While there is support for switching recognition from Taiwan to China, a majority (58%) still support closer relations between Paraguay and Taiwan.
Methodology
From 23 March 2023 to 19 April 2023, Premise surveyed 372 people across 16 departments and the capital district. Post-stratification weights were applied to align the demographics of the actual sample with the target population based on region, age and gender.
Premise in Action
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