Premise Predictions of Unrest & Vote Suppression Unfold in Brazil
Tracking Global Events | 3 November 2022
On October 30th, Brazilians elected ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to replace incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. On election day, in a blatant attempt to suppress votes for Lula, Bolsonaro aligned police forces and national military to block highways and cause traffic jams in pro-Lula areas. In the days since Lula’s slim victory, Bolsonaro supporters have taken to the streets, causing unrest, blocking roads, and demanding a military intervention to reinstate Bolsonaro on the grounds of a fraudulent election. Prior to the election, Premise released a survey gauging sentiment around the likelihood of voter suppression and/or unrest on election day and the days that followed. To complement this survey, Premise is also tracking unrest and roadblocks spurred by Bolsonaro supporters through observational data collection.
Indicators of Voter Suppression and Unrest
- Before the election, more Bolsonaro voters felt the national military would remain impartial than Lula voters. 46% of all respondents either ‘Strongly Agreed’ or ‘Agreed’ that the national military would remainimpartial during the presidential elections. However, 61% of Bolsonaro supporters agreed at some level with this statement, while just 33% of Lula supporters believed this would be the case.
- Bolsonaro voters had greater faith that the national military would keep them safe. 50% of all respondents either ‘Strongly Agreed’ or ‘Agreed’ that the national military would keep them safe from internal security threats. But responses fell hard on party lines, with 69% of Bolsonaro supporters agreeing at some level with the statement, while just 29% of Lula supporters believed this would be the case.
- Over half of Brazilians polled believed that there would be unrest and violence if Lula won, whereas less than half believed that to be true if Bolsonaro won. 54% of respondents felt it was “very likely” or “likely” that there would be violence and unrest if Lula won. Meanwhile, only 42% believed this to be true if Bolsonaro won.
Submissions of current roadblocks in support of Bolsonaro
Submissions of post-election protests from contributors in Fortaleza, Curitiba, and Brusque
On October 27th, Premise launched a survey to a stratified sample of adults, aged 18+, residing in Brazil. A total of 2,002 responses were collected across all 26 states and the Federal District of Brazil with a margin of error of +3. Post-stratification weights were applied to align the demographics of the actual sample with the target population based on region, age and gender. On October 31st, Premise launched an observational task asking contributors to locate and photograph post election unrest in their area.
Premise in Action
Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making.