Timeline of the Arrest of Ovidio Guzman Leaves Many Suspicious
Tracking Global Events | 9 January 2023
In a dramatic operation, Mexican authorities arrested Ovidio Guzman, son of infamous drug lord “El Chapo” Guzman, near the Sinaloan city Culiacan. Following the arrest of Guzman, Mexican security forces clashed with cartel and gang members in strongholds, which resulted in at least 30 deaths and widespread destruction of property. Not only have Mexican authorities denied rumors of external help from the United States in conducting the operation, but also denied claims that the timing of the arrest aligned with the visit of President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to the Mexican capital for the North American Leaders summit.
Insights
- Despite 57% of Mexicans believing the arrest of Guzman marks a turning point on the war on drugs and cartel violence, the arrest has only swayed 44% of those surveyed to be more confident in the success of the “war on drugs”.
- 53% support Guzman being extradited to the U.S. for his crimes while only 17% oppose. Moreover, only 39% believe Mexican authorities’ statement that the U.S. was not involved in the operation and 69% believe the timing of the operation was done purposefully to appease Joe Biden ahead of his visit to Mexico.
- Ovidio Guzman was previously arrested in 2019 but was promptly released to “prevent further bloodshed” after his allies wreaked havoc and violence around Mexico. 47% of contributors agreed with this decision. This time around, while 60% of Mexicans thought Ovidio Guzman’s arrest was not worth the subsequent violence and destruction, only 29% believe Guzman should be released to “prevent further bloodshed.
- 52% of those surveyed believe the Sinaloa cartel will be “hurt” or “greatly hurt” by the arrest of Guzman and 38% believe it will “neither hurt nor benefit” the cartel. Further, most believe the Jalisco cartel has the most to benefit from Guzman’s arrest.
- Contributors are split on whether the security situation will improve or deteriorate in the coming months, while the majority believe that cartel activity will increase.
Following the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, how do you feel?
Effectiveness of each country in combating drug and cartel violence
Methodology
Between January 6th and January 9th, Premise launched a convenience sample survey in Mexico receiving 2,545 across all 32 states in Mexico. Our demographic panel consisted of 60% male and 40% female respondents with the majority falling into the age range of 25-35.
Premise in Action
Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the Ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making.