With Voters Worried & Anxious, Bolsonaro Edges Lula Slightly
Tracking Global Events | 27 October 2022
On October 30th, Brazilians will return to the polls to vote in a Presidential election run-off after the first round saw no candidate reach the 50% threshold. The 2022 Brazilian election cycle has been one of the most contentious the country has seen, testing Brazil’s institutions. The two run-off candidates, right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, and left wing, ex-President, Lula, pose a stark contrast in political philosophy. To better understand voting intentions and national issues, Premise launched a nationwide survey on October 26. In under 24 hours, Premise fielded a nationally representative sample of voters and analyzed results.
Insights
- Declaring voting preferences between the two candidates, 46% of respondents answered with Bolsonaro and 43% with Lula; 11% chose “Blank Vote”. Removing the “Blank Vote”, 52% of respondents answered with Bolsonaro and 48% with Lula. These results are in line with The Economist’s Poll of Polls for the Brazilian Election, which shows the race tightening ahead of the vote.
- Just 28% of Brazilians polled were happy with the current political climate. Broken down by candidate, only 12% of Lula supporters were happy, while 44% of Bolsonaro supporters were.
- In an election marred by misinformation campaigns, Bolsonaro (43%) and Lula (49%) supporters are in agreement that Facebook is the primary platform for proliferation of fake news about the election. YouTube was cited as the least prone to such information.
- There was little optimism about the state of Brazilian democracy, with just 24% of those polled believing it was “stronger than it’s ever been”. However, those preferring the candidate in power were more bullish, with 31% of Bolsonaro supporters believing it to be stronger than it’s ever been. Just 18% of Lula supporters agreed with that assessment.
Media Outlets Trusted Most For Impartial Election Coverage
Feelings Towards the Upcoming Sunday Elections
Methodology
Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making.
Premise in Action
Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the Ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making.