Poland Set for Reshuffle As Opposition Gain Ground on Entrenched Right-Wing Party


Tracking Global Events | October 20, 2023

In a stunning turn of events, Poland’s opposition parties – Civic Coalition, Third Way, and Left – emerged as the victors in a high-stakes parliamentary election. This victory came at a time when Poland is facing significant challenges, including high inflation, a strained relationship with the EU, and a mounting refugee crisis. The victory of Poland’s opposition signifies a promise of change, with pledges to reverse several of the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s judicial reforms, including the near-total abortion ban introduced in 2021. In anticipation of the October 15th parliamentary election, Premise conducted a nationally representative survey using its unique research technology platform. The results were remarkable, with Premise’s predictions aligning with the unprecedented voter turnout rate, a clear PiS majority, and Civic Coalition closely trailing behind.


  • Premise predicted a 77.4% voter turnout rate, just 3% variance from the record-breaking official voter turnout of 74.4%.
  • Among decided voters, Premise predicted a PiS majority of 38.8% of votes, just a 3.4% deviation from the official polling result of 35.4%.
  • At 27.7%, Premise’s forecast for Civic Coalition was also remarkably close, with a 3% variance from the official polling result of 30.7%.
  • 58% of Poles said that inflation in the past 12 months has influenced their voting decision, reaffirming that the country’s inflation rate, third highest in the EU, is still being felt by voters
  • Furthermore, 64% believe Eastern border security influenced their voting decisions, while 46% believed that the issue of immigration from Eastern and African countries had an impact on their party preferences.
  • Amidst this polarizing election, 73% believe hate speech and lies were present in this year’s election campaigns.
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From October 3rd to October 11th 2023, Premise polled a stratified sample of 576 adults representative by age and gender across Poland. Premise was able to field responses from all 16 provinces in Poland. Post-stratification weights were then applied to the results.

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