Protests Likely in Mexico this Weekend Following AMLO’s Overhaul of Election Watchdog
Tracking Global Events | 24 February 2023
On Wednesday, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and his congressional allies passed sweeping reforms against Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE), drastically slashing their budget and autonomy. Critics say the move will undermine the country’s electoral institutions and allow AMLO to consolidate power. The United States has remained silent, careful not to criticize the latest move of the popular, left-wing populist president who has been far more critical towards the US than previous Mexican leaders. To measure Mexican sentiment on AMLO’s overhaul of the electoral agency, Premise fielded a rapid response survey.
- AMLO’s popularity in Mexico is strong with 57% of respondents approving of his presidency, and only 27% disapproving of it. Further, 48% of Mexicans believe that under AMLO’s presidency democracy has gotten stronger, with 29% believing it remained the same and 23% believing it has weakened.
- Nearly half of respondents explicitly support AMLO’s overhaul of the Mexican electoral agency. 47% agreed with his overhaul, 28% had no opinion, and only 25% disapproved of it. But many believe the move will be challenged in front of the Supreme court, which is relatively unpopular. If this happens, 40% of respondents believe the Supreme Court will side with AMLO, and 30% believe the court will strike down the overhaul.
- Opposition leaders have called for protests against the reforms on Sunday, but awareness of these protests is mixed, with 55% of those surveyed being aware of them. Of those 55%, nearly two-thirds (63%) know someone who will be attending. Half of respondents believe that the protests will be violent.
Premise launched this rapid response survey between february 23rd and 24th utilizing convenience sampling, a type of nonprobability sampling that is hyper efficient in dynamic events, involving the sample being drawn from the population that is ready to assist. Premise received 1400 responses from across 30 states in Mexico in under 24 hours.
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