In a Post-Midterm Premise Poll, DeSantis Surges With Republicans Vs. Trump

by | Nov 21, 2022


In a general election match-up vs. Biden, DeSantis leads 52%-48%, and Trump trails Biden 53%-47%


San Francisco, CA — November 21, 2022 — In a post-midterm national sample of Republicans conducted this past weekend, November 19-20, the Premise Poll shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis surging to a statistical dead heat with Donald Trump at 51% and DeSantis at 49%. In the last Premise Poll conducted before the midterms, taken October 31- November 2, Trump led DeSantis 65%-15% (in a survey that included several other Republican candidates).

Today’s poll also shows that Biden’s lead over Trump in a potential 2024 matchup appears to have grown over the last several months. A previous September Premise tracking poll showed Biden at 51% vs. Trump at 49%, a statistical tie, whereas Biden now has a six-point lead over Trump (53%-47%). Meanwhile, DeSantis now draws 52% support vs. Biden’s 48%, also a statistical dead heat.

These poll results were revealed today during the Premise podcast “Great Minds Think Data,” hosted by Premise CEO Maury Blackman. Blackman’s guests were well-known pollster and messaging expert, Frank Luntz, and lawyer and strategist, Lanny J. Davis.

Other findings in the Premise Poll released today:

  • In their head-to-head matchups with Biden, DeSantis and Trump appear to get stronger support among Independents than Biden.
  • The majority of Democratic respondents (51%) supported Representative Nancy Pelosi’s decision to step down as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Only 12% did not support the decision, and 37% said they did not have an opinion.

For cross tabulation tables by party, gender, ethnicity, region, see here.

Follow the “Great Minds Think Data” Podcast, hosted by Premise CEO Maury Blackman, on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, and other podcast platforms.


These results are based on responses from 1,747 Americans collected between 19-20 November via the Premise smartphone application. Premise randomly sampled its opt-in panel members, stratified on Age, Gender, Region and Education, based on the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS). The results are weighted by Age, Gender, Region and Education benchmarked against the 2019 ACS estimates. Respondents were compensated for their completion of the survey through the Premise app.

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