Lula & Bolsonaro Deadlocked; Contrast in Issue Salience


Tracking Global Events | 10 October 2022

On October 30th, Brazilians will go to the polls to vote in a second-round, run-off election between Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula). The 2022 Brazilian election cycle has been one of the most contentious the country has seen, testing Brazil’s institutions. The two front runners, right-wing Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, and left wing, ex-president, Lula, pose a stark contrast in political philosophy. To better understand voting intentions and the importance of various issues to Brazilians, Premise launched a nation-wide survey prior to the first round vote.


  • When asked about a potential second round vote between the two candidates, 51% of respondents answered with Bolsonaro and 49% with Lula. These results are in line with The Economist’s Poll of Polls for the Brazilian Election.
  • Among Contributors surveyed, 39% believed that Bolsonaro was “Less” or “Much Less” corrupt than the average politician in Brazil while only 21% believed that Lula was “Less” or “Much Less” corrupt.
  • More Bolsonaro supporters (33%) than Lula supporters (22%) believed there were malicious attempts by foreign countries to influence the election. Interestingly, of those, both Candidate’s supporters believed the U.S. to be the main culprit of foreign interference. 62% of Lula supporters believe the U.S. maliciously interfered while 42% of Bolsonaro supporters believe the U.S. interfered.
  • Contributors were also asked about their opinions on “Having a strong leader who does not have to bother with Parliament and Elections.” 41% of Lula supporters thought that this was “Very Bad” or “Fairly Bad” compared with just 28% of Bolsonaro supporters.

Top Issues by Candidate Preference

Sentiment towards having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections


Between September 27th and October 2nd, Premise launched a survey to a stratified sample of Brazilian contributors, receiving 2,642 responses across all 26 states and the Federal District of Brazil. The results were then post-weighted on region, age, and gender to be nationally representative.

Premise in Action

Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making.