Premise Poll: Trump and Biden in Virtual Dead Heat

by | Jul 28, 2022


NEW YORK, July 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The new “Great Minds Think Data” podcast, hosted by Maury Blackman, CEO of Premise Inc., a global on-demand data insights company based in San Francisco, today disclosed the latest presidential poll (The Premise Poll) results showing President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump locked in a statistical dead heat for 2024 – Trump at 53% and Biden at 47%, within the margin of error.

The recent Premise Poll also predicts Trump defeating both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence by double-digit margins among GOP voters for the 2024 presidential nomination. 

Joining Blackman in this first “Great Minds Think Data” podcast episode was former President Bill Clinton’s special counsel, Lanny J. Davis, who also advised President George W. Bush as part of a privacy and civil liberties panel.

In addition, the new Premise Poll results were exclusively shared with three leading national radio talk show hosts – Stephanie Miller, Thom Hartmann, and John Fugelsang, whose shows are distributed on various radio platforms, including SiriusXM.

When discussing the Trump-Biden dead heat Premise Poll results, Blackman remarks during the podcast: “[It’s interesting that the poll reveals to us] both Biden and Trump are not taking advantage of the substantial political problems that [are] facing the other. Despite Biden’s low thirties poll ratings and relatively high inflation facing the country, especially at the gas pumps, according to this Premise Poll sample, Trump is not beating Biden. Yet Biden is not beating Trump despite all of Trump’s problems related to his handling of the January 6, 2021 mob attack on the Capitol [and] attempt to overturn the 2020 election results.”

Even so, Trump is immensely popular among primary-voting Republicans. He leads DeSantis by more than two-to-one – 69% versus 31% – and Pence by a three-to-one margin, 77% versus 25%.

Dems to Biden: Don’t run again

On the other hand, Democrats have a clear message for President Biden – don’t run again. By a margin of twenty-three points – 61% versus 38% – they reject another Biden run.

In additional polling of Democrats, preferences for candidates in place of Biden include Vice President Kamala Harris (21%) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (19%), with California Governor Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg tied for third at 9%.

In anticipation of the 2022 Congressional midterm elections, the Premise Poll reveals 54% of the sample prefers Republican and 46% favor Democratic candidates. This type of “generic” poll on party preferences has historically closely correlated with Congressional election results.

The “Great Minds Think Data” podcast hosted by Premise’s CEO Maury Blackman, is a regularly occurring podcast where Blackman invites industry thought leaders to discuss a variety of prominent, current topics at the intersection of data and the worlds of business, politics, and economics. In the podcast, Blackman and the guests explore how commercial businesses and governments can use real-time data to make actionable decisions. Data presented and discussed in each podcast episode is collected on-demand by Premise’s own unique publicly available app with over 4.5 million contributors in 140 countries around the world.

Disclosure of polling methodology

Premise Poll results are based on 635 of U.S. adults aged 18 years and older, surveyed from July 15, 2022, to July 16, 2022. Respondents completed the survey on the Premise mobile app. Results were then weighted according to the U.S. Census to accurately reflect the general population’s age and gender. The party affiliation in the poll was 28% Democrats, 26% Republicans, and 25% independents.

About Premise

Premise is an on-demand insights company. Its technology mobilizes communities of global smartphone users to source actionable data in real-time, cost-effectively, and with needed visibility. In more than 140 countries and 37 languages, Premise finds Data for Every Decision.

If you’d like to view the report, click here.